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Long Range Forecasts Issued by IMD and Verification from 1932-1988




Year Region Forecast Actual
(% of LPA)
1932 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is not likely to be less than 87% of the average 103
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is not likely to be less than 80% of the average 94

1933

 PENINSULA There is an 80% chance  the monsoon rainfall being above average 122
NW INDIA There is an 90% chance  the monsoon rainfall being above average 137

1934

 PENINSULA The total amount of the monsoon rainfall will not be below 95% of the average 112
NW INDIA The total amount of the monsoon rainfall will not be below 95% of the average 106

1935

 PENINSULA The evidence is conflicting and merely indicates that it will not differ from the average by more than 15% 101
NW INDIA It will neither be in large defect nor in moderate or large excess 92

1936

 PENINSULA The evidence from the known factors is so conflicting that no forecast of practical value can be issued concerning this year monsoon rainfall 96
NW INDIA The evidence from the known factors is so conflicting that no forecast of practical value can be issued concerning this year monsoon rainfall 111

1937

 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall will be above 93% of the average 106
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall will be above the average 84

1938

 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above 95% of the average 116
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above 95% of the average 81

1939

 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall will lie between 81% and 111% of the average 89
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall will lie between 68% and 118% of the average 72

1940

 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be  82% to 112% of the average 104
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be below  the average 90

1941

 PENINSULA Monsoon rainfall is likely to exceed 90% of the average 81
NW INDIA Monsoon rainfall is likely to be either normal or somewhat in defect 77

1942

 PENINSULA The available evidence shows that there is a 4:1 chance that the monsoon rainfall will be above normal 118
NW INDIA The available evidence shows that there is a 4:1 chance that the monsoon rainfall will be above normal 140

1943

 PENINSULA Different factors give conflicting indications & it is not possible to issue any useful forecast about monsoon rainfall 101
NW INDIA Different factors give conflicting indications & it is not possible to issue any useful forecast about monsoon rainfall 103

1944

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 94% of the average 118
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 92% of the average 112

1945

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 90% of the average 115
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is not likely to fall below 87% of the average 119

1946

 PENINSULA There is four to one chance that the rainfall will not fall below 90% of the average 109
NW INDIA There is four to one chance that the rainfall will not fall below 86% of the average 106

1947

 PENINSULA There is five to one chance that the monsoon rainfall of June to September will be above normal 110
NW INDIA There is five to one chance that the monsoon rainfall of June to September will be above normal 106

1948

 PENINSULA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will lie between 82 – 117% of the average 92
NW INDIA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will lie between 79 – 128% of the average 114

1949

 PENINSULA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will be either normal or slightly above normal 108
NW INDIA There is a four to one chance that the total monsoon rainfall will be either normal or slightly above normal 89

1950

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 96
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 129

1951

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 84
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be above  normal 65

1952

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 103

1953

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 112
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 98

1954

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 118
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 92

1955

 PENINSULA NOT ISSUED 115
NW INDIA NOT ISSUED 116

1956

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 123
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 114

1957

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 93
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be above  normal 100

1958

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 117
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be not far from normal 131

1959

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 133
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be  about normal 119

1960

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 95
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 103

1961

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 131
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 136

1962

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 96
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 102

1963

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 99
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 95

1964

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above  normal 112
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 109

1965

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 79
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 64

1966

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 81
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be  about normal 90

1967

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 104
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 109

1968

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly excess 85

1969

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be about normal 104
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal 89

1970

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 122
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly below normal 105

1971

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above normal 92
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal or slightly above  normal 106

1972

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 73
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 74

1973

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 111
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 133

1974

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above normal 78
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly below  normal 82

1975

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 117
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 160

1976

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 105
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 130

1977

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 101
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 124

1978

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below  normal 107
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be  nearly normal 128

1979

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slight defect (From -11 to -25) 83
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slight defect (From -11 to -25) 75

1980

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 107
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly above normal 97

1981

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 102
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 90

1982

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below  normal 88
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be slightly below  normal 78

1983

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be  normal to slightly below  normal 126
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be nearly normal 114

1984

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 86
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 93

1985

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above  normal 82
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to slightly above  normal 92

1986

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 85
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 88

1987

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be nearly normal 73
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 54

1988

 PENINSULA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 119
NW INDIA The monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal 139