Sub-seasonal rainfall fluctuations, characterized as active and weak spells during the Indian monsoon season (June to September) is an important component of the variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall. Recently, new criteria for identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon have been recommended on the basis of the recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall data set over India (1951-2007) (Rajeevan et al. 2006). Active and break events are identified from the average rainfall data over a critical area, called the core monsoon zone (shown in the Figure below as a box) within which the monsoon trough/ Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) normally fluctuates. Active and break events are defined as periods in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over the monsoon zone exceeds 1 or is less than -1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days.

The time series of standardized rainfall anomaly over the monsoon zone from 1 June 2011 is given below. This time series will help you to monitor the active and break events in this monsoon season.